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News for: Bond Markets
Showing 121 - 144 of 244 results
Aug 14, 2025 8:23 AM
— Bond Markets
Producer Prices Surge, Complicating The Rate Cut Outlook
The Producer Price Index came in higher than expected at 0.9%, driven by increases in trade services, machinery/equipment, portfolio management, and vegetables. This caused some weakness in bonds but not as significant as if the CPI had reported a similar beat. PPI is more volatile than CPI and suggests a smaller spike in consumer inflation.
Aug 13, 2025 7:25 AM
— Bond Markets
Follow-Through Rally as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Increase
Bonds rallied overnight due to lower EU yields, stable inflation in Germany, lower oil prices, and increased odds of a rate cut at the September meeting. Despite the improvement in yields, the bigger picture remains relatively stable in the 4.2-4.3 range as the market awaits the next jobs report.
Aug 12, 2025 2:26 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Bonds rallied after core CPI data was released at 8:30am, with the annual headline number showing improvement. However, there were concerns about rising inflation in categories like core services and goods, partly offset by declining housing related inflation. The market reaction was mixed, underscoring the importance of the next jobs report in determining the direction of rates.
Aug 12, 2025 6:24 AM
— Bond Markets
Mixed Reaction Thanks to Messy Internal CPI Components
The CPI data released this morning met expectations, with the monthly headline at 0.2 and the core at 0.3. Bonds are slightly stronger, but there are arguments for them to be selling off based on other factors. Despite being green on the day, bonds may see gains erode as markets process the implications.
Aug 11, 2025 1:24 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI
Treasuries slightly outperformed MBS today, with both remaining close to unchanged overall. The bond market has been mostly sideways since the last major cue from the jobs report earlier in the month. The upcoming CPI report on Tuesday is expected to be the most significant data release of the week, potentially impacting volatility. Traders are particularly interested in sorting out tariff-impacte... more
Aug 9, 2025 3:23 AM
— Bond Markets
Empty Calendar and Summertime Drift
The bond market in early August is experiencing limited movement and narrower ranges. Yields have crept up slightly after dropping last Friday. The only major technical level overhead is 4.28. Bond market momentum will be clearer after next Tuesday's CPI.
Aug 8, 2025 1:23 PM
— Bond Markets
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI
Bonds lost ground at the fastest pace of the week on Friday, but overall trading helped solidify gains from the previous week's jobs report. Focus is now on the upcoming CPI report as it could impact the next big move for rates. Treasuries closed at their weakest levels with 10-year rates rising.
Aug 7, 2025 2:24 PM
— Bond Markets
Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction
Morning economic data was limited to Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected but not enough to cause a significant rally in bonds. Despite losing ground after a 30yr bond auction, bonds did a decent job of holding their ground in the last few hours of the day.
Aug 6, 2025 8:23 AM
— Bond Markets
Super Calm Post-NFP Week Continues
This week has been unusually calm in trading following the release of the jobs report. The market hasn't seen much movement or relevant data, with the only possible event being the 10-year Treasury auction. The outcome of the auction could provide insight into the market's sentiment and intentions.
Aug 5, 2025 2:23 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Hold Steady After Modest Data-Driven Rally
The ISM Services data was a mixed blessing for bonds, with an uptick in the inflation component but all other components suggesting a mild economic deceleration. Bonds ended the day closer to unchanged levels, with MBS outperforming due to heavy auction supply for Treasuries. Overnight and after the ISM data, 10yr was up slightly at 4.215, while MBS were down a bit. There was no major reaction to ... more
Aug 4, 2025 2:53 PM
— Bond Markets
Calmly Closing at Best Levels Since April
Following a calm post-NFP Monday, bonds closed slightly stronger, reaching the best levels since early April for MBS. Treasury yields are not doing quite as well as April's lows, reflecting lingering impacts of tariffs and fiscal policy. The day lacked actionable econ data, with the focus shifting to ISM Services on Tuesday.
Aug 1, 2025 1:23 PM
— Bond Markets
Big Old Rally After HUGE Downward NFP Revisions
The non-farm payrolls report showed significantly lower numbers than expected, with substantial revisions to the previous two months as well. This has led to a reevaluation of Fed rate cut odds, causing Fed Funds Rate expectations to drop. Treasury yields have decreased, particularly the 2yr yields, which are closely tied to the Fed Funds Rate. MBS have also seen an increase in value.
Jul 31, 2025 1:23 PM
— Bond Markets
Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
Bonds were slightly stronger overnight and remained relatively stable despite morning economic data. Both stocks and bonds pared long positions in the afternoon, resulting in losses during typical closing times. Despite giving up overnight gains, bonds stayed close to 'unchanged' levels as they headed into Friday's big jobs report.
Jul 31, 2025 7:24 AM
— Bond Markets
No Whammies From PCE
The PCE Price Index for June was released, with core monthly PCE coming in lower than expected. Despite this, bonds are holding modest overnight gains due to lower jobless claims and higher employment costs.
Jul 30, 2025 6:53 AM
— Bond Markets
Deceptively Strong GDP Causing Early (Possibly Unjustified) Weakness
Two key reports were released at the start of trading: ADP data and GDP. ADP data showed moderate job growth, while GDP beat expectations. However, bonds are trading GDP beat despite the fact that true domestic demand metrics are falling. Core PCE prices were higher than expected, increasing the risk of tomorrow's PCE data being hotter. Bonds have only partially erased yesterday's gains and the Fe... more
Jul 29, 2025 2:24 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
The bond market experienced a flow state on Tuesday with steady buying after economic data, a strong 7-yr auction, and additional buying after the auction. Buyers seemed encouraged by friendly data and Treasury supply timing, with yesterday's auctions not benefiting from updated Treasury borrowing estimates. By the time of today's 7-yr auction, buyers felt confident after knowing the quarterly ref... more
Jul 29, 2025 10:24 AM
— Bond Markets
Relatively Friendly Labor Market Data Adding to Overnight Gains
Bonds are trading in a boring, narrowing, sideways range overall, but saw some improvement in the morning session. Economic data showed slight declines in job openings and quits, which is seen as a positive for rates. The labor market indicator also showed a decrease in the gap between those who see jobs as plentiful vs scarce.
Jul 28, 2025 1:01 PM
— Bond Markets
A No Reaction Sort of Day
There were no major economic reports on Monday, but events like Treasury auctions and borrowing estimates for Q3 and Q4 were expected to potentially influence the market. However, there was no significant reaction to these events, and mortgage-backed securities and 10-year yields remained relatively stable.
Jul 28, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Slowest Day of a Very Busy Week
Despite the announcement of a US-EU bilateral trade deal, markets have not moved significantly. 10yr yields were briefly lower but are now slightly higher, possibly due to cautiousness surrounding US/China negotiations. This week features two big Treasury auctions a day earlier than normal, along with upcoming economic data releases and a Fed announcement. Rates have stagnated around 4.5% since la... more
Jul 26, 2025 8:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Trade Headlines Trump Durable Goods Data, But Minimal Change Either Way
Bonds started strong but weakened in the overnight session. There was some selling in the first hour, but it did not align with the weaker-than-expected Durable Goods data at 8:30 am. The market moved more significantly after Trump made comments around 9am, including discussions on trade deals and interest rates. The volume spike and bond reversal may have been influenced by his comments.
Jul 25, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing
Bonds traded with forgettable, sideways momentum this week with minor fluctuations. Friday saw gains due to optimism surrounding U.S./EU trade talks, leading to steady sideways movement. The upcoming week is expected to have more volatility with relevant events daily, including Friday's big jobs report.
Jul 24, 2025 3:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling
The Jobless Claims report was the most relevant economic report of the week. It pushed yields slightly higher, but bonds were able to recover at the NYSE open. There was no major reaction to the S&P PMI data, and by the end of the day, MBS were down only 2 ticks and the 10yr was up 1.9bps.
Jul 24, 2025 6:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Some Selling Before and After Jobless Claims
Jobless claims data remains strong, with the 4 week average at a 13 week low. This is one of the few actionable reports this week, leading to a small negative reaction in the bond market.
Jul 24, 2025 3:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back
The article discusses the recent gains in the bond market and the subsequent weakness seen due to sideways momentum and lower volatility. The trade deal progress between the US and Japan impacted stocks positively but caused bonds to weaken. Despite some fluctuations, the bonds are stabilizing at slightly weaker levels.
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The mortgage rates displayed on this site are collected daily from publicly available sources provided by more than 600 lenders. Mortgage-Rates.ai does not receive compensation for listing these rates, and all rates are presented as published by the respective lenders. While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, the information may contain errors or omissions. Mortgage rates are highly dependent on an individual’s financial circumstances, credit profile, loan terms, and other factors. As such, the rates you are quoted directly by a lender may differ materially from the rates displayed here.
Users should contact lenders directly to obtain formal, binding loan offers. If you identify any discrepancies in the data or would like to have your institution’s rates included, please contact us at content@mortgage-rates.ai
All logos, trademarks, and brand names appearing on this website are the property of their respective owners.