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News for: Bond Markets
Jul 31, 2025 1:23 PM
— Bond Markets
Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
Bonds were slightly stronger overnight, with the initial reaction involving some selling that was fully erased by mid-morning. Stocks and bonds pared long positions in the afternoon, resulting in most losses around the typical closing hours. Ultimately, bonds gave up overnight gains but remained close to 'unchanged' by the end of the day.
Jul 31, 2025 7:24 AM
— Bond Markets
No Whammies From PCE
The biggest economic indicator for the day was the monthly PCE Price Index for June, which showed lower core monthly PCE than expected. Despite this, bonds are holding modest gains due to lower jobless claims and higher employment costs.
Jul 30, 2025 7:23 AM
— Bond Markets
Deceptively Strong GDP Causing Early (Possibly Unjustified) Weakness
At the start of trading, ADP data and GDP data were released. ADP data was better than expected while GDP data beat expectations. However, true domestic demand metrics showed a trend of contraction, which doesn't fully explain the bond market reaction. Core PCE prices were higher than expected, indicating a risk of higher inflation. Bonds have only partially erased yesterday's gains and the Fed an... more
Jul 29, 2025 2:24 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Firing on All Cylinders After Data and Treasury Supply
The bond market experienced a flow state on Tuesday with steady buying after economic data, a strong 7-yr auction, and additional buying after the auction. Buyers seemed encouraged by friendly data and Treasury supply timing, with yesterday's auctions not benefiting from updated Treasury borrowing estimates. By the time of today's 7-yr auction, buyers felt confident after knowing the quarterly ref... more
Jul 29, 2025 10:24 AM
— Bond Markets
Relatively Friendly Labor Market Data Adding to Overnight Gains
Bonds are trading in a boring, narrowing, sideways range overall, but saw some improvement in the morning session. Economic data showed slight declines in job openings and quits, which is seen as a positive for rates. The labor market indicator also showed a decrease in the gap between those who see jobs as plentiful vs scarce.
Jul 28, 2025 1:01 PM
— Bond Markets
A No Reaction Sort of Day
There were no major economic reports on Monday, but events like Treasury auctions and borrowing estimates for Q3 and Q4 were expected to potentially influence the market. However, there was no significant reaction to these events, and mortgage-backed securities and 10-year yields remained relatively stable.
Jul 28, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Slowest Day of a Very Busy Week
Despite the announcement of a US-EU bilateral trade deal, markets have not moved significantly. 10yr yields were briefly lower but are now slightly higher, possibly due to cautiousness surrounding US/China negotiations. This week features two big Treasury auctions a day earlier than normal, along with upcoming economic data releases and a Fed announcement. Rates have stagnated around 4.5% since la... more
Jul 26, 2025 8:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Trade Headlines Trump Durable Goods Data, But Minimal Change Either Way
Bonds started strong but weakened in the overnight session. There was some selling in the first hour, but it did not align with the weaker-than-expected Durable Goods data at 8:30 am. The market moved more significantly after Trump made comments around 9am, including discussions on trade deals and interest rates. The volume spike and bond reversal may have been influenced by his comments.
Jul 25, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing
Bonds traded with forgettable, sideways momentum this week with minor fluctuations. Friday saw gains due to optimism surrounding U.S./EU trade talks, leading to steady sideways movement. The upcoming week is expected to have more volatility with relevant events daily, including Friday's big jobs report.
Jul 24, 2025 3:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling
The Jobless Claims report was the most relevant economic report of the week. It pushed yields slightly higher, but bonds were able to recover at the NYSE open. There was no major reaction to the S&P PMI data, and by the end of the day, MBS were down only 2 ticks and the 10yr was up 1.9bps.
Jul 24, 2025 6:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Some Selling Before and After Jobless Claims
Jobless claims data remains strong, with the 4 week average at a 13 week low. This is one of the few actionable reports this week, leading to a small negative reaction in the bond market.
Jul 24, 2025 3:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back
The article discusses the recent gains in the bond market and the subsequent weakness seen due to sideways momentum and lower volatility. The trade deal progress between the US and Japan impacted stocks positively but caused bonds to weaken. Despite some fluctuations, the bonds are stabilizing at slightly weaker levels.
Jul 23, 2025 8:01 AM
— Bond Markets
Weaker Start After Japan Trade Deal
The article discusses how market movements are being analyzed without any actionable economic data this week. The announcement of a trade deal with Japan boosted stocks and hurt bonds, leading to some selling in the domestic trading session but not enough to break above this week's high yields.
Jul 22, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day
Bonds improved in the morning after comments from Bessent, who is seen as the voice of reason in defusing market frenzy over potential ouster. Additional gains came from NYSE tradeflows. Stocks sank in the morning but rebounded in the afternoon without pushing bond yields higher. MBS and 10yr bonds saw gains throughout the day, reaching their best levels by the end of the day.
Jul 22, 2025 8:01 AM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Approve of Bessent Comments and Stock Volatility
Stock market volatility is impacting both stock and bond markets, with earnings season increasing volume and liquidity. Positive movement in the bond market occurred after comments from Bessent regarding trade negotiations and Fed Chair Powell. Bessent's efforts seem to be helping yields move lower to decrease Treasury's interest burden.
Jul 21, 2025 3:01 PM
— Bond Markets
Uneventful Resilience
The bond market showed moderate resilience on Monday, with yields lower across the board, particularly for longer-term notes. The motivation for the market movement is assumed to come from technical factors and trading in other markets. Earnings season is contributing to increased volume and volatility around 9:30am and 4pm.
Jul 21, 2025 9:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Stronger Start on Another Quiet Calendar Week
This week's economic calendar is relatively quiet, with scheduled speeches from Fed members not touching on monetary policy due to the Fed's blackout period. The S&P PMI and Jobless Claims data may prompt some reactions, but overall, both stocks and bonds are making gains. Technicians are focusing on technical indicators such as support at 4.50% in 10yr yields last week and the nearness to the 100... more
Jul 19, 2025 3:01 AM
— Bond Markets
Slow Green Friday
At the end of the week, the market is experiencing stability with only minor economic reports like Consumer Sentiment and residential construction numbers. Bonds were green overnight and remain positive as we head into the afternoon. Overall, the market is unchanged for the week.
Jul 18, 2025 2:01 PM
— Bond Markets
Needle Threaded. Now What?
This week there were potential high-impact events such as the CPI data and Trump/Powell headlines that could have caused big moves in bonds/rates, but the actual impact varied. Ultimately, the market ended the week almost unchanged from the previous week.
Jul 17, 2025 2:01 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
After the release of economic data in the morning, the bond market initially showed some selling/weakness but quickly turned to bond buying due to a downtrend in discretionary consumer spending. This led to bonds staying in positive territory for most of the day, despite a slight afternoon correction back to unchanged levels.
Jul 17, 2025 9:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Decent Start Despite Stronger Retail Sales Headline
The Retail Sales report came out stronger than expected, even when excluding certain categories like autos, gas, and building materials. This would typically pressure bonds, but revisions and lower inflation-adjusted spending helped push bond yields lower today.
Jul 16, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
Reports that Trump was considering firing Powell caused longer-term yields to rise in the bond market. Despite Trump later saying he's not considering firing Powell, traders remained skeptical and favored shorter-term debt. Overall, 10yr yields and MBS made gains during the day amidst the drama behind the scenes.
Jul 16, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
PPI Reaction Playing Out Better Than CPI So Far
The article discusses how the reaction to PPI data was different from the reaction to CPI data the previous day. PPI being lower than expected indicated a milder impact from tariffs compared to CPI categories affected by tariffs. The PPI data showed that the worst offenders were domestic, leading to a modest rally in response.
Jul 15, 2025 2:02 PM
— Bond Markets
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
Despite a smaller impact from tariffs than expected, both stocks and bonds sold off sharply at 9:30 am following the release of the top line CPI numbers. However, the weakness continued as MBS and 10yr yields fluctuated throughout the day.
Jul 15, 2025 6:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Tariffs Show Up in CPI, But Not Enough to Hurt
Tariffs did not have a significant impact on this month's inflation, as housing, medical care, and professional services were the main drivers of higher inflation. Bonds rallied initially due to CPI coming in below forecast, but the persistence of non-tariff-driven inflation caused uncertainty, resulting in a modest rally that did not push yields significantly lower.
Jul 14, 2025 2:01 PM
— Bond Markets
All Eyes on CPI
Bonds have been slightly weaker in July but have remained relatively stable since last Tuesday. There is anticipation for the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which is expected to show tariff impacts. Depending on the results, rates may be affected, and potential volatility is to be expected.
Jul 12, 2025 7:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Overnight Selling But Still in The Range
The article discusses the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, which is an increase from the previously-slated 25%. Exemptions for USMCA goods and energy/fertilizer are probable but TBD. This development is a concern for the bond market from an inflation standpoint, leading to losses in both stocks and bonds overnight.
Jul 12, 2025 7:01 AM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact
Stocks sold off in response to the announcement of 35% tariffs on Canada, leading to bonds drifting into weaker territory throughout the day. Market is anticipating Tuesday's CPI report to see if the tariffs have impacted the data significantly. Friday's weakness in bonds could be a result of investors waiting for the upcoming data release.
Jul 11, 2025 7:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Week's Only Relevant Data is Not Bond-Friendly
The article discusses how the weekly jobless claims data was the only relevant economic report for the week, with numbers showing no cracks in the labor market. Despite Continuing Claims remaining elevated, they stayed below long term highs from 3 weeks ago. This resulted in the bond market moving into slightly weaker territory.
Jul 10, 2025 3:01 PM
— Bond Markets
Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady
Bonds lost a small amount of ground today but are holding steady on the week. Fed speakers reiterated dovish messages, and the Treasury auction wasn't especially strong. MBS and 10yr yields saw some fluctuations throughout the day, with modest changes at the close.
Jul 9, 2025 3:03 PM
— Bond Markets
Correction to the Correction. Will it Last?
Bond traders demonstrated clear foresight by starting buying early in the week, leading to consistent buying and improvement in 10yr Treasury yields and MBS. The market saw a classic correction to June's rally followed by a correction of that correction, with events like the 10yr Treasury auction and Fed Minutes having varying impacts throughout the week.
Jul 8, 2025 2:05 PM
— Bond Markets
Correction Starting to Level Off?
Bonds managed to stop the bleeding early and push back toward unchanged levels by the end of the day, showing a potential trend reversal. Despite some selling overnight and early in the day, there was a very slight recovery with very low volatility.
Jul 8, 2025 8:06 AM
— Bond Markets
Heads: They Win. Tails: You Lose
Stocks and bonds are responding to new developments on the tariff front, with letters sent to trade partners announcing new tariff rates effective August 1st. Despite general tariff fatigue, the market was paying attention due to the formal nature of the announcements. While stocks were falling, bonds were holding steady, and vice versa.
Jul 8, 2025 4:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Slow Start; Light Calendar This Week
After a rally reversal following last week's jobs report, the bond market is facing a data-free week with little movement from last Thursday's close. Thursday saw heavy selling, potentially ending the rally trend from late June. The most anticipated event on the horizon is next week's CPI data, which will likely determine the direction of trading levels and trends.
Jul 7, 2025 2:04 PM
— Bond Markets
Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements
Bonds started the day weaker and continued to lose ground in the morning. After new tariff announcements caused selling in stocks, there was some initial buying in bonds, but not for long. Tariffs have proven to be a double-edged sword for bonds. Today's weakness added to a multi-day correction that began last Wednesday. Buyers may remain hesitant until more of the week's Treasury auction cycle ta... more
Jul 3, 2025 1:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
The strong jobs report led to bond sellers pushing the yield curve higher, especially at the short end, but MBS didn't experience as much damage. The MBS market remained relatively stable despite uncertainties about Treasury auctions and the recent spending bill.
Jul 3, 2025 7:01 AM
— Bond Markets
Jobs Report Comes in Stronger. Bonds React Logically
The jobs report for this morning showed stronger results than expected, leading to bond market weakness. The drop in unemployment also contributed to the sell-off. Despite some 'yeah buts' in the data, there was nothing significant enough to suggest lower yields. Revisions have been more aligned with the consensus, which could potentially benefit the bond market in the future.
Jul 2, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
The bond market is anticipating a lower NFP number despite the consensus of 110k. The ADP employment report showed a significant miss, causing initial bond market rally that was not sustained. Overall, there was minimal weakness with bonds holding steady on the eve of high-consequence data release.
Jul 2, 2025 7:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Think About Rallying on ADP Data, But Already Getting Cold Feet
The ADP employment report came out much weaker than expected, prompting a potential rally on the bond market. However, global bond markets are facing pressure from a rout in UK debt and ADP's track record in predicting NFP is hit or miss.
Jul 1, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
Bonds started the day in line with yesterday's levels but were impacted by data releases like the JOLTS report and Senate's spending bill passage. Despite some volatility, bonds remained open-minded ahead of the upcoming jobs report and CPI release. Throughout the day, there was some back and forth movement in bond prices and yields.
Jul 1, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
AM Data Possibly Arguing For a Bounce
Tuesday's economic data included S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. While PMI data was slightly stronger than expected, job openings data showed a significant bounce, suggesting a leveling off after a rapid decline. This led to MBS moving back to yesterday's lows and yields near yesterday's highs.
Jun 30, 2025 3:01 PM
— Bond Markets
Steady Gains in the PM Hours
On quarter-end trading, bond buying in the afternoon resulted in yields bottoming out just before the NYSE close. Month-end buying picked up later, leading to a strong move into the close with MBS up almost a quarter point and 10yr down 4.8bps.
Jun 28, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Minimal Impact From PCE Data
Bonds were slightly weaker at the start of the final trading day of the week, but this was not due to the morning's PCE data. The PCE data did not cause much of a stir, despite core monthly inflation being slightly higher than forecast. Lower income and spending offset the higher inflation. Bonds improved slightly, but headlines about the Senate's push to approve its version of the spending bill h... more
Jun 28, 2025 5:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
Bonds gave up their gains late in the day after a decent recovery, likely due to Senate moving closer to a spending bill vote and Trump declaring an end to trade negotiations with Canada, potentially implying inflation pressure. The week overall saw lower Fed Funds Rate expectations, which will be further influenced by key economic reports in the following weeks.
Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
The Trend is Friendly For Now
Bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past few days, with today being a confirmation of that shift. Despite yields being at the lowest levels in more than a month, there was solid 7yr Treasury auction today. The data wasn't a huge factor in today's improvement, but there are underlying reasons for the vigor in bonds.
Jun 26, 2025 7:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Tons of Data, But Not a Ton of Movement
Despite a busy economic calendar with significant reports such as Durable Goods and GDP, trading volume fell short compared to past sessions. Mixed signals in the data have led to a neutral stance for the day.
Jun 25, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
Bond market experienced light selling pressure initially but bond buyers were able to regain control in the afternoon. The Fed's announcement of changes to banking rules also provided some support to the market. Yields closed at their lowest levels since May 7th.
Jun 25, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Lighter Calendar and Light Selling
Bonds are pausing today after reaching the best levels in more than a month. The event calendar is not very impactful, with the main source of potential volatility being the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction.
Jun 24, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness
The morning commentary highlighted Jerome Powell's relatively dovish tone in congressional testimony, which provided hope for low rates. Another important development was the labor differential in the Consumer Confidence Index, indicating challenging labor market conditions post-covid lockdowns. Bonds rallied early and closed with incremental gains. MBS were up 9 ticks and 10yr down 5.3bps.
Jun 23, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Don't Always React to War Like You'd Expect
Long-time bond watchers generally believe that war leads to increased global economic uncertainty, driving safe-haven demand for US Treasuries and helping rates. However, the recent Russia/Ukraine conflict resulted in a paradoxical spike in rates due to inflation implications. Despite anticipation of a similar risk with oil prices over the weekend, there was no significant reaction in bonds. As th... more
Jun 21, 2025 5:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Unofficial 4 Day Weekend
Trading sessions without many participants, like the Friday after Thanksgiving, are often uneventful with markets trading in narrow ranges. Even on holidays like Juneteenth, the market continues to trade within the same old range in a predictable pattern.
Jun 18, 2025 3:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Fed Threads Needle of Apathy
The Federal Reserve's updated dot plot was released with minimal impact on the bond market initially. However, after Fed Chair Powell suggested waiting a couple of months to make a decision, there was a slight increase in bond yields. Overall, the Fed managed to maintain market apathy despite the dot plot release.
Jun 17, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's No Cut Announcement
Bonds initially lost some ground after positive economic data but recovered in the afternoon due to general risk-off vibes surrounding geopolitical headlines. The upcoming release of the Fed's rate outlook could provide more trading justification.
Jun 17, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Econ Data Not Weak Enough to Help
Bonds were stronger overnight but trading levels remain in a narrow range. Despite weaker Retail Sales data, bond buying was not as strong as expected. The control group of retail sales had a positive upward revision, influencing bond performance. Bonds lost ground after the data was released.
Jun 16, 2025 1:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Token Weakness Without a Cause
Recent bond movements have shown a rally followed by a sell-off, with 30yr yields increasing almost 10bps over two sessions. Geopolitical motivations and fiscal concerns do not seem to be significant factors affecting these movements. The market is currently considered rangebound with a potential pull-back after lower yields were observed last Thursday.
Jun 16, 2025 1:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Mortgage Rates Drift Slightly Higher to Start The Week
Despite political and geopolitical headlines, the bond market has seen little inspiration in the past 2 business days. Bonds and rates have moved slightly lower, possibly in response to last Thursday's lower rates or in anticipation of caution ahead of upcoming data and a Fed announcement. The losses have been modest, leaving rates in the middle of their range over the past 2 months. Retail Sales ... more
Jun 16, 2025 7:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Slow Start Leaves Focus on The Next 2 Days
Bonds rallied last Wednesday and Thursday but pulled back slightly on Friday. Trading levels at the start of the new week are similar to Friday's levels. The focus is on Wednesday's Fed dot plot for potential bond market volatility. Geopolitical headlines have not had a significant impact on bonds. The overall trend appears rangebound, but there is evidence of a general downtrend.
Jun 14, 2025 6:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness
The bond market experienced a selling spree possibly sparked by Consumer Sentiment, although there were nuances in the timing and reasons behind the selling. Selling began after the unofficial opening bell for bond market trading and continued despite a delay after the data release. Traders may be moving to the sidelines ahead of next week's potential geopolitical developments and Fed announcement... more
Jun 13, 2025 7:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Opening Weaker Despite Israel/Iran Headlines
Israel's attack on Iran caused stock market gains to be erased and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in over a month. The overnight trading pattern is unpredictable and despite the volatility, over-analyzing it may not be worth it. There are various factors at play influencing bond yields, including economic strength and inflation, with oil prices potentially being an ancillary consideration... more
Jun 12, 2025 7:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Higher Bar For Additional Gains Despite Lower PPI
The PPI core monthly number came in at 0.1 vs the forecast of 0.3, leading to a small rally in bonds that was not as significant as the previous day's rally. The outcome may have been priced in to some extent, and the yield curve and Fed Funds Rate expectations are also factors to consider.
Jun 11, 2025 2:02 PM
— Bond Markets
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results
Bonds had a straightforward session on Wednesday, rallying after a large CPI beat and a well-received 10yr Treasury auction. Both shorter and longer maturities saw gains, with 10yr yields down 3.7bps at 4.439 and MBS up a quick quarter point. The day ended with MBS hitting new highs and bonds at new low yields.
Jun 10, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow?
After a slow start, the bond market remained flat throughout the day despite a weak 3yr Treasury auction. Trade talks between the US and China are potentially extending into a 3rd day. Tomorrow's focus will be on trade-related news, a 10yr Treasury auction, and CPI data. The market cares more about long-term inflation outlook rather than current data.
Jun 10, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Bumpy Start; No Data; Waiting on Auction and Trade Headlines
Bonds are experiencing a small amount of volatility this morning, but it is not significant in the overall market. MBS have returned to unchanged levels after a brief moment of weakness at 10:15am ET. 10-year yields rose slightly but are still almost 1 basis point lower. The Treasury auction and trade-related headlines are expected to drive any bigger-picture momentum in the absence of relevant ec... more
Jun 9, 2025 1:51 PM
— Bond Markets
Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines
Bond markets closed stronger, maintaining most of the gains from the morning. However, a slight increase in 10yr yields later in the day was attributed to positive comments on US/China trade talks. The market's reaction to trade-related headlines was evident. MBS increased by 3 ticks and 10yr yields decreased by 1.3bps.
Jun 9, 2025 6:51 AM
— Bond Markets
Shifting Gears After Friday's Volatility
The bond market is currently in a stable range due to recent economic data. 10yr yields are hovering between 4.4 and 4.56. With no major data releases expected, market movements will be influenced by fiscal/trade headlines.
Jun 7, 2025 9:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data
The bond market experienced a sell-off following a modest beat in the NFP report, despite negative revisions. Wednesday's rally was based on expectations for Friday's jobs report, which did not meet expectations. The NFP remains at decent levels and is not as concerning as recent weaker data would suggest.
Jun 7, 2025 3:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Jobs Report Not Bad Enough to Justify The Lead-Off
The bond market was initially expecting a lower number for the non-farm payroll report due to recent weaker economic data, but when the actual number came out at 139k, traders rushed to get back into a more neutral position. The unemployment rate remains relatively steady at 4.2% and the previous month's NFP revision does not indicate significant weakness.
Jun 5, 2025 2:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report
Bonds had an interesting day with a hawkish European Central Bank announcement, news of a Trump/Xi phone call affecting trade relations, a Trump/Musk social media exchange impacting stocks, and market movements ahead of the jobs report. Overnight, MBS were slightly stronger but lost ground after the ECB announcement.
Jun 5, 2025 7:17 AM
— Bond Markets
Bumpy Start; Data Overshadowed by Other Events
Bonds initially rallied in the morning but quickly reversed gains, with the shift attributed to stock market volatility and the Trump/Xi call, as well as the ECB announcement. This led to Treasuries and MBS returning to roughly unchanged levels.
Jun 4, 2025 8:24 AM
— Bond Markets
JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either
Bond market showed moderate strength overnight, weakened after Job Openings data was released but recovered in the afternoon. Headlines about the Senate taking up the budget bill did not have a significant impact on the bond market. Overall, bonds closed roughly unchanged. Next focus is on ISM Services data. 10yr yields ended slightly higher at 4.47, MBS slightly down, but there was a decent recov... more
Jun 4, 2025 8:23 AM
— Bond Markets
Weaker Econ Data. Lower Yields
The bond market had a simple morning as key economic reports came in weaker than expected. ADP employment numbers were significantly lower than forecasted, while ISM Services data showed weaker growth metrics but an increase in the employment index. The ISM price index also continues to rise, catching the attention of the bond market.
Jun 2, 2025 4:00 PM
— Bond Markets
New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data
The bond market experienced some excess strength due to month-end trading last week, resulting in the lowest yields of the day. However, the yields were still targeted by sellers leading to a modest correction at the beginning of a new month. Despite the correction, yields remained towards the lower end of the recent range.
Jun 2, 2025 8:01 AM
— Bond Markets
Softer Start Despite Tame ISM Manufacturing Data
The ISM Manufacturing PMI report has the potential to influence the bond market, with today's weaker result helping bonds avoid additional weakness. 10yr yields are slightly lower, hovering around 4.45%, as investors await more data.
May 31, 2025 3:01 AM
— Bond Markets
Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility
Today's economic data had little impact as it met expectations. Month-end trading environment likely influenced bond market, resulting in bonds reaching strongest levels of the week by a small margin.
May 29, 2025 1:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower After Today's Data
There was behind-the-scenes volatility in the bond market today, but it had a minimal impact on mortgage lenders. The bond market initially weakened due to news on tariffs, but reversed after the release of weak economic data. The weaker data was good for bonds and rates, leading to a modest drop in the average conventional 30yr fixed rate.
May 29, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Overnight Trading Makes No Guarantees
Overnight trading initially reacted to news of a U.S. trade court blocking Trump tariffs, but the markets quickly reversed course the following morning. Bond traders do not believe the court ruling will have a lasting impact on tariff policy. Economic data released in the morning also contributed to the reversal, with weaker claims and GDP numbers.
May 29, 2025 7:01 AM
— Bond Markets
Minimal Movement Amid Absence of Data
The bond market had a fairly uneventful session, with the 5yr Treasury auction resulting in little change. Traders sold off before the auction and bought back in afterwards. The Federal Reserve Minutes did not have much impact on market volatility. Economic data in the coming days may influence market movement, along with month-end trading potentially causing significant swings for unknown reasons... more
May 28, 2025 10:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Hesitation Ahead of Treasury Auction and Month-End
Bonds started the week positively but are now facing resistance, highlighting the need for a strong catalyst for sustained improvement. Possible factors include weak economic data, low inflation, or reduced Treasury issuance. Today, bonds are pausing ahead of a 5yr Treasury auction, with risk parity trading affecting both stocks and bonds.
May 27, 2025 3:01 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Finally Seeing Some Support
Japanese bonds, weak labor market data, and re-positioning after a holiday weekend contributed to bonds hitting their best 3pm close in 2 weeks. The heavy selling in May and recovery from high yields suggests a short-term ceiling until further notice. The upcoming week's data will provide more information on momentum shifts.
May 27, 2025 9:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Japan? Something Else? Does it Matter?
Last week's headlines raised concerns about volatility in the Japanese bond market affecting US yields, but today's correction in Japanese yields has led to strength in Treasuries. The movement in Treasuries is not significant compared to recent trends. Overall, the larger movements in Japanese government bonds have shown no correlation with Treasuries. The impact of Japan on US yields should be t... more
May 24, 2025 3:01 AM
— Bond Markets
A Little Early Excitement
Bonds initially reacted to Trump comments on raising EU tariffs, causing movements in the market. However, by the end of the day, stocks and bonds were moving back in the opposite direction, ending with modest gains. The day concluded with slightly weaker levels compared to the past 3 months.
May 22, 2025 2:02 PM
— Bond Markets
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker
Bond yields have been trending higher in May but experienced gains due to sellers taking a break. The gains were not driven by data or fiscal news, but possibly due to position-squaring before a holiday weekend. 10yr bond yields were down slightly in MBS.
May 22, 2025 7:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Conspicuous Absence of Volatility After Data and Spending Bill Vote
The passage of the spending bill in the House led to only a modest extension of losses in stocks and bonds, as they had already been pricing it in throughout the week. Yields recovered into positive territory before the morning economic data release and have not changed much since then. Overall, there was surprisingly low volatility considering the news and lack of economic data for the week.
May 21, 2025 3:01 PM
— Bond Markets
Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun
The bond market experienced some volatility due to the 20-year auction, resulting in selling in both stocks and bonds. However, the auction was not as significant as the market reaction suggested.
May 21, 2025 8:01 AM
— Bond Markets
Nothing For Bonds to Trade But Fiscal Disillusionment
Despite a lack of relevant economic data and the impending holiday weekend affecting participation and increasing potential volatility, bonds are feeling disillusioned with the fiscal outlook as congress debates spending. Yields have been in a short-term range since the US/China tariff pause but are now being pushed towards the top of that range due to fiscal disillusionment.
May 20, 2025 3:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination
Bonds were relatively flat today with 10yr yields up slightly. There was modest volatility in the morning due to budget headlines, but overall, the market is waiting for more significant news to impact bond yields.
May 20, 2025 7:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Budget Battle Hitting Bonds Amid Empty Calendar
The bond market is experiencing movement cues from sources other than economic data, such as corporate bond issuance and budget battle news. Bonds are protesting a lack of fiscal restraint and are concerned about potential higher Treasury issuance.
May 19, 2025 2:01 PM
— Bond Markets
(Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness
The market initially had a knee-jerk reaction to Moody's US credit rating downgrade, leading to sharp losses in stocks and bonds. However, the overall impact was limited as other rating agencies had already downgraded the US credit rating. Bonds ended the day weaker compared to the previous week but stronger compared to immediately after the Moody's news.
May 17, 2025 5:02 AM
— Bond Markets
Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade
Bonds started the day stronger, but began to sell off after an inflation expectations reading from 1981. Moody's downgraded the US credit rating near the end of the day, leading to some last-minute selling before the 5pm cut-off.
May 15, 2025 3:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses
The bond market saw a rally following Powell's speech, with speculation that potential updates to the inflation framework might have caused nervousness among investors. Despite modest gains earlier in the day, both MBS and the 10yr yield were down by the end of the day.
May 15, 2025 7:00 AM
— Bond Markets
A No Whammies Rally For Bonds After Data and Powell
Today's market action is helping to explain yesterday's sell-off, with retail sales' control group below expectations. Powell's speech at the policy framework conference led to bigger moves and higher volume, possibly due to concerns about a shift towards tolerating higher policy rates. The market has almost completely reversed yesterday's weakness, but yields are bouncing before completing the jo... more
May 14, 2025 3:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Another Just Because Sell Off
The article discusses recent sell-offs in the bond market with no clear catalysts, forcing market watchers to come up with narratives to explain the situation. One possible reason for the sell-off could be a broad rotation out of bonds and into stocks. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are down, and 10-year Treasury rates are up, indicating higher mortgage rates for consumers. The article suggests ... more
May 14, 2025 12:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Where is The Next Move Coming From?
There have been recent changes in bond market rules due to tariff policy, leading to more adjustments than usual. The trade war de-escalation has boosted stocks but hurt bonds. Market optimism/fear regarding trade policy is influencing the bond market. Data still matters, but its impact is being analyzed alongside trade policy developments.
May 13, 2025 3:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds End Almost Perfectly Flat
The article discusses how bond rates were almost perfectly flat for the day, with some mild volatility in the morning. Despite lower than expected inflation, bonds lost ground due to other factors like risk-on trading and tariff headlines from China. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were up slightly, while 10-year bond rates were slightly down. There was a decent late bounce, but overall rates rem... more
May 13, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Stock Gains Creating Bond Pain After Flat Response to CPI
The article discusses how the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data had a minimal impact on bond markets, as the results were close to consensus expectations. Despite a slight increase in core CPI, bond yields remained flat. The article also mentions that positive tariff headlines from China led to a "risk-on" trade in the market. Overall, the article suggests that mortgage rates may not see sign... more
May 12, 2025 3:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter?
The article discusses how recent news, such as changes in tariffs, are impacting bond markets. The US/China tariff pause is causing uncertainty and potential upward pressure on mortgage rates. The lack of finality in the situation means that it will take time to understand the full impact on rates. The bounce in stocks suggests that there may be unwinding of previous risk-off trades. Overall, mort... more
May 10, 2025 3:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Lots of Fed Speakers, But The Focus is on China
The article mentions that the market is awaiting news from US/China trade talks, with speculation on how tariffs could impact bonds and mortgage rates. The bond market's reaction function is unclear, as investors have different priorities. The article suggests that different investors will react differently to news about tariffs, which could impact mortgage rates and home buyers.
May 10, 2025 3:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
The article discusses the volatility in the bond market on Friday, with movements impacted by comments from a Swiss finance minister on US/China trade talks. Despite the slight movements, the article highlights the low odds of a trade resolution. Mortgage rates were mostly flat throughout the day, with MBS up slightly and 10yr yields fluctuating. Home buyers may need to pay attention to upcoming i... more
May 8, 2025 3:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
The article discusses a sharp sell-off in bonds due to a UK/US trade deal, which could raise tariffs and increase inflation. This could potentially lead to higher mortgage rates, impacting home buyers. Bond prices dropped throughout the day, with MBS down 6 ticks and 10yr up 4.6bps at the weakest levels in the morning. The auction further weakened bonds, with MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 10bps. Ove... more
May 8, 2025 12:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Slow Start, Two-Way Trading After Data
Bonds initially lost ground after the release of jobless claims and labor costs data, but then rallied with 10-year yields dropping almost 4 basis points. The 30-year bond auction at 1pm ET is the only other relevant event scheduled. Trade-related headlines could also impact market movement. Overall, mortgage rates are likely to remain stable for home buyers in the near term.
May 6, 2025 8:00 AM
— Bond Markets
2-Way Trading, Slightly Weaker Start
The article discusses how bond yields have been fluctuating, with a gradual rally in the morning leading to modest strength by 9am ET. The focus is on German political developments, particularly the election of Chancellor Merz. This has had an impact on German bunds and US Treasuries, with the latter finding a supportive ceiling. Mortgage rates are likely to be influenced by these movements in bon... more
May 5, 2025 3:00 PM
— Bond Markets
Selling Spree Continues, But Gently
The article discusses bond trading and how traders were focused on the ISM Services Index. The index moved slightly higher and did not provide enough fuel for bond bulls, leading to a three-day selling spree. This caused 10-year yields to rise above the 4.34 technical level. Mortgage-backed securities were down slightly and 10-year yields were up, indicating an increase in mortgage rates. This wou... more
May 3, 2025 11:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
The article discusses the return of data dependence in the bond market, with economic data influencing bond yields. Recent data has been better than expected, leading to higher yields and stock prices. Mortgage-backed securities have experienced selling and weakness, with mortgage rates increasing. This could impact home buyers by making mortgages more expensive.
May 2, 2025 7:00 AM
— Bond Markets
Reasonably Strong Jobs Report. Reasonably Weak Reaction in Bonds
The article discusses how the bond market has reacted to the latest jobs numbers, with a stronger than expected report leading to a sell-off in bonds. This has pushed mortgage rates higher, impacting home buyers. Despite the positive jobs data, the economy is not necessarily sliding towards a recession, but the impact on mortgage rates is a concern for potential home buyers. Bond yields are expect... more
May 1, 2025 2:24 PM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility
Today's ISM Manufacturing data had an impact on bonds, with the market reacting to the uncertainty in economic data. MBS and 10yr yields fluctuated throughout the day in response to the data.
May 1, 2025 9:00 AM
— Bond Markets
ISM Manufacturing Data Surprises Bonds (Not in a Good Way)
The article discusses recent economic data and its impact on bond and mortgage rates. The S&P Manufacturing PMI data hinted at a market response to economic data after weeks of tariff headlines dominating. The ISM PMI data release was hotly anticipated but did not show the same jump as the S&P version. However, all other components moved higher and beat expectations, causing bonds to react negativ... more
Apr 30, 2025 1:50 PM
— Bond Markets
Action Packed Calendar But No Major Action in Bonds
The article discusses the economic calendar for the day, focusing on GDP, inflation, Treasury issuance, and pending home sales. It notes that while there was a surge in imports affecting GDP, domestic consumption remained normal. Despite some volatility in trading, bonds ended the day almost unchanged. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the 10-year Treasury yield saw some fluctuations throughout... more
Apr 30, 2025 3:50 AM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Erase Overnight Weakness With Help From Tariff Talk and Data
The article discusses bond market activity, with bonds being slightly weaker overnight but reversing in early trading. The White House's comment about Amazon listing tariff impacts caused selling in stocks and buying in bonds, leading to gains for both. The 10am economic data did not have a significant impact on the market. The article suggests that mortgage rates may be affected by this activity,... more
Apr 29, 2025 2:38 PM
— Bond Markets
Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck
The article discusses the trading range of mortgage rates, which have been gradually improving and returning to a lower boundary. White House comments on Amazon impacted stocks early on but markets bounced back. Economic data helped bonds maintain or increase gains. The article suggests that data over the next few days will be important and volatility may increase. Mortgage rates have been modestl... more
Apr 29, 2025 9:38 AM
— Bond Markets
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
The article discusses the Treasury borrowing estimates and how they have impacted bonds and mortgage rates. Despite potentially alarming numbers, the increase is due to accounting and not reflective of a significant change in spending or revenue. The bond market reacted favorably to the news, with yields moving lower. This could mean good news for home buyers as mortgage rates may decrease as well... more
Apr 28, 2025 9:38 AM
— Bond Markets
Bonds Starting New Week at Last Week's Best Levels
The article discusses the stability in the bond market, specifically focusing on the performance of yields and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). It mentions that there was some improvement in MBS after the Dallas Fed Survey. It also notes that there are no major data or events scheduled for the morning, with market focus remaining on equities and earnings season. The article highlights the impact ... more
Apr 26, 2025 9:38 AM
— Bond Markets
Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day
The article describes how the past two trading sessions have been calm and strong, with improvements in the market without any specific trigger events. This change in market behavior is attributed to a general sense of cooler heads prevailing on the policy-making front. Mortgage-backed securities and Treasury yields have seen modest gains, with MBS up a quarter point and 10-year Treasury yields do... more